Shortage of key chemical raw materials eases, market prices stabilize

After two years of tight supply and sharp price fluctuations (e.g., a 120% surge in ethylene oxide in 2023), the market for key chemical raw materials has gradually stabilized in 2025, driven by supply chain normalization and new capacity launches.

For basic petrochemical raw materials: The restart of several refineries in the U.S. Gulf Coast (post-hurricane disruptions) and the commissioning of a 3 million-ton/year ethylene plant in the Middle East have increased global ethylene supply by 15% year-on-year, pushing prices down 28% from 2024 highs. For new energy materials: The expansion of lithium carbonate capacity in Australia and Chile (adding 200,000 tons/year total) has cut prices by 35%, while China’s 100,000-ton/year nickel sulfate plant launches have eased shortages for battery cathode production.

Logistics improvements have also played a role: The backlog of chemical cargo at European ports has dropped by 70%, and shipping costs for bulk chemicals (e.g., methanol) have fallen 40% from 2024 peaks. However, experts note that regional supply risks remain—for example, tight natural gas supplies in Europe could still disrupt ammonia production in the winter, requiring enterprises to maintain 1-2 months of safety stock for critical materials.